Bloomberg's Electric Vehicle Outlook 2018

You can read Bloomberg's Electric Vehicle Outlook 2018 here.

Battery prices keep taking a battering

Bloomberg’s report that the cost to manufacture a kWh of electric vehicle (EV) battery had reached an average of $209 at the end of 2017, though of course leading manufacturers’ stated figures are already way down on that, but the current report is predicting that EVs become cost competitive to manufacture with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in 2024 (i.e. ~$100 per kWh) and that this cost will fall to $70 per kWh by 2030. Again we feel even this might be conservative, but it’s clear that the future is bright for EVs.

All about the BEVs, ‘bout the BEVs, no petrol?

Contrary to the current UK picture, the Bloomberg team foresee that the global Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) market has limited room for growth, and full Battery Electric Vehicle (BEVs) will take a significant lead in sales from circa 2020. Interestingly they don’t see PHEV sales growing much further, but nor do they see them dying off completely in this time frame - presumably as they remain a bridge technology for those countries coming to electrification later in the century. Currently, global BEV sales are actually slightly leading PHEV globally, but this is slanted by the Chinese market, and not true in Europe. We would expect the more advanced BEV markets will likely see the PHEV sales reducing through the 2020s.

The electric future is rising in the east

>"China will lead the EV transition, with sales there accounting for almost 50% of the global EV market in 2025 and 39% in 2030.”

While Norway is Europe’s EV mecca, there’s no doubt that China is truly leading the global electrification of road transport. This is already clear from policies enacted and policies underway, e.g.

Shenzhen:
May 1st: all new commercial light duty trucks = EVs
From July 1: Only EVs allowed in ride hailing
By Dec 31:
Replace all remaining taxis with EVs
Build 5,200 EV chargers for taxis
Retire 20,000 diesel light duty trucks

City policies will reshape auto markets.

— Colin Mckerracher (@colinmckerrache) May 17, 2018

China have spent some time positioning themselves to be central to the global battery supply chain, right down to the raw materials. They’re in it for the long haul and they’re going to be a key player in both EV supply and demand.

You wait for ages for your first electric bus, but then…

Again led from China, but increasingly apparent even in London, there is a clear trend for buses to go electric. There are two key factors:

1. Buses tend to concentrate in urban centres where air quality is worst. Conventional buses are diesel powered and are significant contributors of air pollutants. They are typically operated by public sector bodies with a keen eye on air quality improvement, creating significant political will to change the approach; and

2. Buses cover significant distances, meaning cheaper fuel has a good opportunity to pay off higher capital costs in time. So long as the bus can fulfil its daily driving and be charged overnight at depot, this is a win-win.

We are now at a point where these two factors have coalesced. While power supply to the depot can be challenging (as TfL will attest), the e-buses are set to make huge gains in the public transport market.

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